New melanoma therapies are being developed rapidly, complementing prevention and detection strategies for disease control. Estimating the future burden of melanoma is necessary for deciding how best to deploy limited resources to achieve effective melanoma control. Using three decades of cancer registry data (1982–2011) from six populations with moderate to high melanoma incidence (US whites and the populations of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand), we applied age-period-cohort models to describe current trends and project future incidence rates and numbers of melanomas out to 2031.
