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    • Melanoma
    • Olsen, Catherine MRemove Olsen, Catherine M filter
    • Green, Adele CRemove Green, Adele C filter
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    • Research Article2

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    • Whiteman, David C2
    • Hughes, Maria-Celia1
    • Muranushi, Chiho1
    • Neale, Rachel E1
    • Thompson, Bridie S1
    • Thrift, Aaron P1

    Journal

    • Journal of Investigative Dermatology2

    Keyword

    • APC1
    • area under the receiver operator characteristic curve1
    • AUROC1
    • average annual percentage rate change1
    • basal cell carcinomas1
    • BCC1
    • KC1
    • keratinocyte carcinoma1
    • SCC1
    • squamous cell carcinomas1
    • UK1
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    • Original Article Tumor Biology
      Open Archive

      A Model to Predict the Risk of Keratinocyte Carcinomas

      Journal of Investigative Dermatology
      Vol. 136Issue 6p1247–1254Published online: February 21, 2016
      • David C. Whiteman
      • Bridie S. Thompson
      • Aaron P. Thrift
      • Maria-Celia Hughes
      • Chiho Muranushi
      • Rachel E. Neale
      • and others
      Cited in Scopus: 26
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        Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future risks of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression models. In secondary analyses, we derived separate models within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex.
        A Model to Predict the Risk of Keratinocyte Carcinomas
      • Original Article Epidemiology
        Open Archive

        The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations through 2031

        Journal of Investigative Dermatology
        Vol. 136Issue 6p1161–1171Published online: February 20, 2016
        • David C. Whiteman
        • Adele C. Green
        • Catherine M. Olsen
        Cited in Scopus: 342
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          New melanoma therapies are being developed rapidly, complementing prevention and detection strategies for disease control. Estimating the future burden of melanoma is necessary for deciding how best to deploy limited resources to achieve effective melanoma control. Using three decades of cancer registry data (1982–2011) from six populations with moderate to high melanoma incidence (US whites and the populations of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand), we applied age-period-cohort models to describe current trends and project future incidence rates and numbers of melanomas out to 2031.
          The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations through 2031
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